2026 Expected Wins
Win probabilities and projected ladder using Log5 + Pythagorean expectation
Based on 13 completed rounds of data
xW Ladder
Teams ranked by cumulative expected wins (points for ranking per round)
| # | Team | xW | W-xW | Pos | GP | PTS | W | L | D | % | F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chol's Tribe | 8.78 | -1.78 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 102.0% | 17,555 | 17,205 |
| 2 | KingCarr | 8.33 | -1.33 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 100.6% | 17,212 | 17,107 |
| 3 | Luke's Legends | 7.00 | 0.00 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 97.0% | 16,954 | 17,475 |
| 4 | Fugga U | 6.89 | +0.11 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 101.1% | 17,160 | 16,972 |
| 5 | Tommy's Troops | 6.56 | -0.56 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 102.2% | 16,941 | 16,573 |
| 6 | Big Bois M8 | 6.56 | +1.44 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 100.6% | 16,829 | 16,733 |
| 7 | BIG DOGS ONLY | 5.89 | +0.11 | 7 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 102.9% | 16,951 | 16,479 |
| 8 | Sons of the Scray | 5.78 | +0.22 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 100.1% | 17,033 | 17,011 |
| 9 | Korean Jones | 4.67 | +1.33 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 99.0% | 16,489 | 16,650 |
| 10 | CopaLiberatore | 4.56 | +0.44 | 10 | 13 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 94.7% | 16,394 | 17,313 |
xW — expected wins by points for ranking per round
W-xW — positive = lucky | negative = unlucky
Projected Final Ladder
| # | Team | Current W-L-D | Current Pts | Remaining | Exp. Future W | Proj. W-L-D | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bois M8 | 8-5-0 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 13-8-0 | 52 |
| 2 | Chol's Tribe | 7-6-0 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 3 | Fugga U | 7-6-0 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 4 | KingCarr | 7-6-0 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 5 | Luke's Legends | 7-6-0 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 6 | BIG DOGS ONLY | 6-7-0 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 7 | Tommy's Troops | 6-7-0 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 8 | Sons of the Scray | 6-7-0 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 9 | Korean Jones | 6-7-0 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 10 | CopaLiberatore | 5-8-0 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 8-13-0 | 32 |
Matchup Probabilities
Round 14Next
Fugga UvsLuke's Legends
50%
50%
50% win50% win
Big Bois M8vsSons of the Scray
65%
35%
65% win35% win
Tommy's TroopsvsBIG DOGS ONLY
50%
50%
50% win50% win
CopaLiberatorevsKingCarr
35%
65%
35% win65% win
Chol's TribevsKorean Jones
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Round 15
Fugga UvsSons of the Scray
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Luke's LegendsvsBIG DOGS ONLY
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Big Bois M8vsKingCarr
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Tommy's TroopsvsKorean Jones
50%
50%
50% win50% win
CopaLiberatorevsChol's Tribe
35%
65%
35% win65% win
Round 16
Fugga UvsBIG DOGS ONLY
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Sons of the ScrayvsKingCarr
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Luke's LegendsvsKorean Jones
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Big Bois M8vsChol's Tribe
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Tommy's TroopsvsCopaLiberatore
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Round 17
Fugga UvsKingCarr
50%
50%
50% win50% win
BIG DOGS ONLYvsKorean Jones
50%
50%
50% win50% win
Sons of the ScrayvsChol's Tribe
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Luke's LegendsvsCopaLiberatore
65%
35%
65% win35% win
Big Bois M8vsTommy's Troops
65%
35%
65% win35% win
Round 18
Fugga UvsKorean Jones
58%
42%
58% win42% win
KingCarrvsChol's Tribe
50%
50%
50% win50% win
BIG DOGS ONLYvsCopaLiberatore
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Sons of the ScrayvsTommy's Troops
50%
50%
50% win50% win
Luke's LegendsvsBig Bois M8
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Round 19
Fugga UvsChol's Tribe
50%
50%
50% win50% win
Korean JonesvsCopaLiberatore
58%
42%
58% win42% win
KingCarrvsTommy's Troops
58%
42%
58% win42% win
BIG DOGS ONLYvsBig Bois M8
35%
65%
35% win65% win
Sons of the ScrayvsLuke's Legends
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Round 20
Fugga UvsCopaLiberatore
65%
35%
65% win35% win
Chol's TribevsTommy's Troops
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Korean JonesvsBig Bois M8
35%
65%
35% win65% win
KingCarrvsLuke's Legends
50%
50%
50% win50% win
BIG DOGS ONLYvsSons of the Scray
50%
50%
50% win50% win
Round 21
Fugga UvsTommy's Troops
58%
42%
58% win42% win
CopaLiberatorevsBig Bois M8
28%
72%
28% win72% win
Chol's TribevsLuke's Legends
50%
50%
50% win50% win
Korean JonesvsSons of the Scray
50%
50%
50% win50% win
KingCarrvsBIG DOGS ONLY
58%
42%
58% win42% win
How it works
- Pythagorean expectation estimates true team strength from points scored and conceded (exponent = 2.37)
- Log5 method (Bill James) converts two teams' individual win rates into a head-to-head probability
- Early in the season, the model weights Pythagorean expectation more heavily; as games accumulate, observed win rate takes over
- Draw probability is estimated from the season's historical draw rate