2026 Expected Wins
Win probabilities and projected ladder using Log5 + Pythagorean expectation
Based on 20 completed rounds of data
xW Ladder
Teams ranked by cumulative expected wins (points for ranking per round)
| # | Team | xW | W-xW | Pos | GP | PTS | W | L | D | % | F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chol's Tribe | 13.67 | -3.67 | 4 | 20 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 103.2% | 27,187 | 26,342 |
| 2 | KingCarr | 11.89 | +0.11 | 1 | 20 | 48 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 100.8% | 26,237 | 26,037 |
| 3 | Tommy's Troops | 10.78 | +0.22 | 2 | 20 | 44 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 101.2% | 26,041 | 25,738 |
| 4 | Luke's Legends | 10.11 | +0.89 | 3 | 20 | 44 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 97.8% | 25,985 | 26,582 |
| 5 | BIG DOGS ONLY | 9.78 | +0.22 | 5 | 20 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 105.6% | 26,324 | 24,930 |
| 6 | Big Bois M8 | 9.56 | +0.44 | 7 | 20 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 96.3% | 25,366 | 26,343 |
| 7 | Sons of the Scray | 9.11 | -0.11 | 8 | 20 | 36 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 102.1% | 26,247 | 25,706 |
| 8 | Fugga U | 9.11 | -0.11 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 99.1% | 25,843 | 26,087 |
| 9 | Korean Jones | 8.00 | +2.00 | 6 | 20 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 99.5% | 25,668 | 25,787 |
| 10 | CopaLiberatore | 8.00 | 0.00 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 95.0% | 25,542 | 26,888 |
xW — expected wins by points for ranking per round
W-xW — positive = lucky | negative = unlucky
Projected Final Ladder
| # | Team | Current W-L-D | Current Pts | Remaining | Exp. Future W | Proj. W-L-D | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KingCarr | 12-8-0 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 13-8-0 | 52 |
| 2 | Tommy's Troops | 11-9-0 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 12-9-0 | 48 |
| 3 | Luke's Legends | 11-9-0 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 12-9-0 | 48 |
| 4 | Korean Jones | 10-10-0 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 5 | Big Bois M8 | 10-10-0 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 6 | BIG DOGS ONLY | 10-10-0 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 7 | Chol's Tribe | 10-10-0 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 8 | Sons of the Scray | 9-11-0 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 9 | Fugga U | 9-11-0 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 10 | CopaLiberatore | 8-12-0 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 8-13-0 | 32 |
Matchup Probabilities
Round 21Next
Fugga UvsTommy's Troops
40%
60%
40% win60% win
CopaLiberatorevsBig Bois M8
40%
60%
40% win60% win
Chol's TribevsLuke's Legends
45%
55%
45% win55% win
Korean JonesvsSons of the Scray
55%
45%
55% win45% win
KingCarrvsBIG DOGS ONLY
60%
40%
60% win40% win
How it works
- Pythagorean expectation estimates true team strength from points scored and conceded (exponent = 2.37)
- Log5 method (Bill James) converts two teams' individual win rates into a head-to-head probability
- Early in the season, the model weights Pythagorean expectation more heavily; as games accumulate, observed win rate takes over
- Draw probability is estimated from the season's historical draw rate