2026 Expected Wins
Win probabilities and projected ladder using Log5 + Pythagorean expectation
Based on 21 completed rounds of data
xW Ladder
Teams ranked by cumulative expected wins (points for ranking per round)
| # | Team | xW | W-xW | Pos | GP | PTS | W | L | D | % | F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chol's Tribe | 14.44 | -3.44 | 3 | 21 | 44 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 103.6% | 28,625 | 27,631 |
| 2 | KingCarr | 12.56 | +0.44 | 1 | 21 | 52 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 100.8% | 27,663 | 27,431 |
| 3 | Tommy's Troops | 11.78 | +0.22 | 2 | 21 | 48 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 101.2% | 27,558 | 27,223 |
| 4 | Luke's Legends | 10.33 | +0.67 | 4 | 21 | 44 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 97.3% | 27,274 | 28,020 |
| 5 | BIG DOGS ONLY | 10.22 | -0.22 | 6 | 21 | 40 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 105.2% | 27,718 | 26,356 |
| 6 | Fugga U | 10.00 | -1.00 | 9 | 21 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 99.0% | 27,328 | 27,604 |
| 7 | Big Bois M8 | 9.56 | +0.44 | 7 | 21 | 40 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 95.8% | 26,458 | 27,629 |
| 8 | Sons of the Scray | 9.44 | -0.44 | 8 | 21 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 101.8% | 27,591 | 27,101 |
| 9 | Korean Jones | 8.56 | +2.44 | 5 | 21 | 44 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 99.8% | 27,063 | 27,131 |
| 10 | CopaLiberatore | 8.11 | +0.89 | 10 | 21 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 95.9% | 26,828 | 27,980 |
xW — expected wins by points for ranking per round
W-xW — positive = lucky | negative = unlucky
Projected Final Ladder
| # | Team | Current W-L-D | Current Pts | Remaining | Exp. Future W | Proj. W-L-D | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KingCarr | 13-8-0 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 13-8-0 | 52 |
| 2 | Tommy's Troops | 12-9-0 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 12-9-0 | 48 |
| 3 | Chol's Tribe | 11-10-0 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 4 | Korean Jones | 11-10-0 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 5 | Luke's Legends | 11-10-0 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 6 | BIG DOGS ONLY | 10-11-0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 7 | Big Bois M8 | 10-11-0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 8 | Sons of the Scray | 9-12-0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 9 | Fugga U | 9-12-0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 10 | CopaLiberatore | 9-12-0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
No upcoming matches to project. All regular season matches have been played.
How it works
- Pythagorean expectation estimates true team strength from points scored and conceded (exponent = 2.37)
- Log5 method (Bill James) converts two teams' individual win rates into a head-to-head probability
- Early in the season, the model weights Pythagorean expectation more heavily; as games accumulate, observed win rate takes over
- Draw probability is estimated from the season's historical draw rate