2026 Expected Wins
Win probabilities and projected ladder using Log5 + Pythagorean expectation
Based on 20 completed rounds of data
xW Ladder
Teams ranked by cumulative expected wins (points for ranking per round)
| # | Team | xW | W-xW | Pos | GP | PTS | W | L | D | % | F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aztrilicueta FC | 13.11 | +1.89 | 1 | 20 | 60 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 106.2% | 26,966 | 25,384 |
| 2 | Scaf | 12.44 | -1.44 | 3 | 20 | 44 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 99.5% | 26,876 | 27,021 |
| 3 | Skillzdatkillz | 11.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 20 | 44 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 100.3% | 26,669 | 26,580 |
| 4 | Lads FC | 10.67 | -2.67 | 7 | 20 | 32 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 99.8% | 26,567 | 26,610 |
| 5 | Kochie's Boys | 10.67 | -1.67 | 6 | 20 | 36 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 100.0% | 26,206 | 26,218 |
| 6 | Beckston FC | 10.56 | +2.44 | 2 | 20 | 52 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 100.6% | 25,528 | 25,371 |
| 7 | Biagi Boomers | 9.56 | -1.56 | 8 | 20 | 32 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 99.7% | 26,121 | 26,192 |
| 8 | Judd Bangers | 8.67 | +1.33 | 5 | 20 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 98.4% | 25,756 | 26,167 |
| 9 | Ro Ro Ro Your Boat | 7.33 | +0.67 | 9 | 20 | 32 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 98.4% | 25,201 | 25,611 |
| 10 | West Coasts Finest | 6.00 | +1.00 | 10 | 20 | 28 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 97.2% | 25,056 | 25,792 |
xW — expected wins by points for ranking per round
W-xW — positive = lucky | negative = unlucky
Projected Final Ladder
| # | Team | Current W-L-D | Current Pts | Remaining | Exp. Future W | Proj. W-L-D | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aztrilicueta FC | 15-5-0 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 16-5-0 | 64 |
| 2 | Beckston FC | 13-7-0 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 14-7-0 | 56 |
| 3 | Skillzdatkillz | 11-9-0 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 12-9-0 | 48 |
| 4 | Scaf | 11-9-0 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 12-9-0 | 48 |
| 5 | Judd Bangers | 10-10-0 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 6 | Kochie's Boys | 9-11-0 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 7 | Lads FC | 8-12-0 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 8 | Biagi Boomers | 8-12-0 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 8-13-0 | 32 |
| 9 | Ro Ro Ro Your Boat | 8-12-0 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 8-13-0 | 32 |
| 10 | West Coasts Finest | 7-13-0 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 7-14-0 | 28 |
Matchup Probabilities
Round 21Next
Biagi BoomersvsSkillzdatkillz
35%
65%
35% win65% win
Ro Ro Ro Your BoatvsBeckston FC
26%
74%
26% win74% win
ScafvsKochie's Boys
60%
40%
60% win40% win
Aztrilicueta FCvsJudd Bangers
75%
25%
75% win25% win
West Coasts FinestvsLads FC
45%
55%
45% win55% win
How it works
- Pythagorean expectation estimates true team strength from points scored and conceded (exponent = 2.37)
- Log5 method (Bill James) converts two teams' individual win rates into a head-to-head probability
- Early in the season, the model weights Pythagorean expectation more heavily; as games accumulate, observed win rate takes over
- Draw probability is estimated from the season's historical draw rate