2026 Expected Wins
Win probabilities and projected ladder using Log5 + Pythagorean expectation
Based on 13 completed rounds of data
xW Ladder
Teams ranked by cumulative expected wins (points for ranking per round)
| # | Team | xW | W-xW | Pos | GP | PTS | W | L | D | % | F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scaf | 8.89 | -0.89 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 101.8% | 17,747 | 17,431 |
| 2 | Aztrilicueta FC | 8.89 | +2.11 | 1 | 13 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 108.7% | 17,587 | 16,184 |
| 3 | Lads FC | 8.22 | -1.22 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 102.6% | 17,643 | 17,197 |
| 4 | Kochie's Boys | 8.00 | -2.00 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 103.9% | 17,475 | 16,826 |
| 5 | Judd Bangers | 6.22 | +0.78 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 99.1% | 16,828 | 16,976 |
| 6 | Beckston FC | 6.11 | +1.89 | 3 | 13 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 98.2% | 16,532 | 16,843 |
| 7 | Skillzdatkillz | 5.56 | +0.44 | 7 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 97.2% | 16,950 | 17,447 |
| 8 | Biagi Boomers | 5.11 | -2.11 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 96.5% | 16,740 | 17,352 |
| 9 | West Coasts Finest | 4.00 | +1.00 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 96.5% | 16,491 | 17,095 |
| 10 | Ro Ro Ro Your Boat | 4.00 | 0.00 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 96.1% | 16,004 | 16,646 |
xW — expected wins by points for ranking per round
W-xW — positive = lucky | negative = unlucky
Projected Final Ladder
| # | Team | Current W-L-D | Current Pts | Remaining | Exp. Future W | Proj. W-L-D | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aztrilicueta FC | 11-2-0 | 44 | 8 | 7 | 18-3-0 | 72 |
| 2 | Scaf | 8-5-0 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 13-8-0 | 52 |
| 3 | Beckston FC | 8-5-0 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 13-8-0 | 52 |
| 4 | Lads FC | 7-6-0 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 5 | Judd Bangers | 7-6-0 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 6 | Kochie's Boys | 6-7-0 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 7 | Skillzdatkillz | 6-7-0 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 8 | West Coasts Finest | 5-8-0 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 8-13-0 | 32 |
| 9 | Ro Ro Ro Your Boat | 4-9-0 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6-15-0 | 24 |
| 10 | Biagi Boomers | 3-10-0 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 5-16-0 | 20 |
Matchup Probabilities
Round 14Next
Biagi BoomersvsKochie's Boys
26%
74%
26% win74% win
Beckston FCvsJudd Bangers
58%
42%
58% win42% win
SkillzdatkillzvsLads FC
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Ro Ro Ro Your BoatvsWest Coasts Finest
42%
58%
42% win58% win
ScafvsAztrilicueta FC
23%
78%
23% win78% win
Round 15
Biagi BoomersvsJudd Bangers
21%
80%
21% win80% win
Kochie's BoysvsLads FC
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Beckston FCvsWest Coasts Finest
72%
28%
72% win28% win
SkillzdatkillzvsAztrilicueta FC
14%
87%
14% win87% win
Ro Ro Ro Your BoatvsScaf
22%
78%
22% win78% win
Round 16
Biagi BoomersvsLads FC
21%
80%
21% win80% win
Judd BangersvsWest Coasts Finest
65%
35%
65% win35% win
Kochie's BoysvsAztrilicueta FC
14%
87%
14% win87% win
Beckston FCvsScaf
50%
50%
50% win50% win
SkillzdatkillzvsRo Ro Ro Your Boat
66%
34%
66% win34% win
Round 17
Biagi BoomersvsWest Coasts Finest
32%
68%
32% win68% win
Lads FCvsAztrilicueta FC
18%
83%
18% win83% win
Judd BangersvsScaf
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Kochie's BoysvsRo Ro Ro Your Boat
66%
34%
66% win34% win
Beckston FCvsSkillzdatkillz
65%
35%
65% win35% win
Round 18
Biagi BoomersvsAztrilicueta FC
95%
5% win95% win
West Coasts FinestvsScaf
28%
72%
28% win72% win
Lads FCvsRo Ro Ro Your Boat
72%
28%
72% win28% win
Judd BangersvsSkillzdatkillz
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Kochie's BoysvsBeckston FC
35%
65%
35% win65% win
Round 19
Biagi BoomersvsScaf
16%
84%
16% win84% win
Aztrilicueta FCvsRo Ro Ro Your Boat
93%
93% win8% win
West Coasts FinestvsSkillzdatkillz
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Lads FCvsBeckston FC
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Judd BangersvsKochie's Boys
58%
42%
58% win42% win
Round 20
Biagi BoomersvsRo Ro Ro Your Boat
40%
60%
40% win60% win
ScafvsSkillzdatkillz
65%
35%
65% win35% win
Aztrilicueta FCvsBeckston FC
78%
23%
78% win23% win
West Coasts FinestvsKochie's Boys
42%
58%
42% win58% win
Lads FCvsJudd Bangers
50%
50%
50% win50% win
Round 21
Biagi BoomersvsSkillzdatkillz
26%
74%
26% win74% win
Ro Ro Ro Your BoatvsBeckston FC
22%
78%
22% win78% win
ScafvsKochie's Boys
65%
35%
65% win35% win
Aztrilicueta FCvsJudd Bangers
83%
18%
83% win18% win
West Coasts FinestvsLads FC
35%
65%
35% win65% win
How it works
- Pythagorean expectation estimates true team strength from points scored and conceded (exponent = 2.37)
- Log5 method (Bill James) converts two teams' individual win rates into a head-to-head probability
- Early in the season, the model weights Pythagorean expectation more heavily; as games accumulate, observed win rate takes over
- Draw probability is estimated from the season's historical draw rate