2026 Expected Wins
Win probabilities and projected ladder using Log5 + Pythagorean expectation
Based on 21 completed rounds of data
xW Ladder
Teams ranked by cumulative expected wins (points for ranking per round)
| # | Team | xW | W-xW | Pos | GP | PTS | W | L | D | % | F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aztrilicueta FC | 13.11 | +1.89 | 1 | 21 | 60 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 105.5% | 28,229 | 26,757 |
| 2 | Scaf | 12.78 | -1.78 | 3 | 21 | 44 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 99.4% | 28,227 | 28,398 |
| 3 | Lads FC | 11.44 | -3.44 | 9 | 21 | 32 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 99.3% | 27,973 | 28,161 |
| 4 | Kochie's Boys | 11.22 | -1.22 | 6 | 21 | 40 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 100.0% | 27,583 | 27,569 |
| 5 | Skillzdatkillz | 11.11 | -0.11 | 4 | 21 | 44 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 99.7% | 27,933 | 28,015 |
| 6 | Beckston FC | 10.78 | +2.22 | 2 | 21 | 52 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 100.2% | 26,793 | 26,754 |
| 7 | Biagi Boomers | 10.44 | -1.44 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 100.4% | 27,556 | 27,456 |
| 8 | Judd Bangers | 9.11 | +1.89 | 5 | 21 | 44 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 98.9% | 27,129 | 27,430 |
| 9 | Ro Ro Ro Your Boat | 8.00 | +1.00 | 8 | 21 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 98.9% | 26,584 | 26,876 |
| 10 | West Coasts Finest | 7.00 | +1.00 | 10 | 21 | 32 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 97.8% | 26,607 | 27,198 |
xW — expected wins by points for ranking per round
W-xW — positive = lucky | negative = unlucky
Projected Final Ladder
| # | Team | Current W-L-D | Current Pts | Remaining | Exp. Future W | Proj. W-L-D | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aztrilicueta FC | 15-6-0 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 15-6-0 | 60 |
| 2 | Beckston FC | 13-8-0 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 13-8-0 | 52 |
| 3 | Skillzdatkillz | 11-10-0 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 4 | Scaf | 11-10-0 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 5 | Judd Bangers | 11-10-0 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 6 | Kochie's Boys | 10-11-0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 10-11-0 | 40 |
| 7 | Biagi Boomers | 9-12-0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 8 | Ro Ro Ro Your Boat | 9-12-0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 9 | Lads FC | 8-13-0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 8-13-0 | 32 |
| 10 | West Coasts Finest | 8-13-0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 8-13-0 | 32 |
No upcoming matches to project. All regular season matches have been played.
How it works
- Pythagorean expectation estimates true team strength from points scored and conceded (exponent = 2.37)
- Log5 method (Bill James) converts two teams' individual win rates into a head-to-head probability
- Early in the season, the model weights Pythagorean expectation more heavily; as games accumulate, observed win rate takes over
- Draw probability is estimated from the season's historical draw rate