2025 Expected Wins
Win probabilities and projected ladder using Log5 + Pythagorean expectation
Based on 21 completed rounds of data
xW Ladder
Teams ranked by cumulative expected wins (points for ranking per round)
| # | Team | xW | W-xW | Pos | GP | PTS | W | L | D | % | F | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kochie's Boys | 14.44 | -0.44 | 2 | 21 | 56 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 105.9% | 30,008 | 28,330 |
| 2 | Skillzdatkillz | 13.56 | +2.44 | 1 | 21 | 64 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 103.4% | 29,101 | 28,133 |
| 3 | Biagi Boomers | 12.22 | -3.22 | 6 | 21 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 98.6% | 29,057 | 29,472 |
| 4 | Beckston FC | 11.44 | +1.56 | 3 | 21 | 52 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 104.6% | 29,339 | 28,049 |
| 5 | Ro Ro Ro Your Boat | 11.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 21 | 44 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 101.3% | 28,754 | 28,381 |
| 6 | Lads FC | 9.56 | -0.56 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 99.0% | 28,290 | 28,585 |
| 7 | Judd Bangers | 8.67 | +2.33 | 5 | 21 | 44 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 101.4% | 28,231 | 27,844 |
| 8 | West Coasts Finest | 8.44 | -0.44 | 8 | 21 | 32 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 97.2% | 27,561 | 28,348 |
| 9 | Aztrilicueta FC | 8.33 | -1.33 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 94.2% | 27,605 | 29,321 |
| 10 | RONSTON FC | 7.33 | -0.33 | 10 | 21 | 28 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 94.8% | 27,054 | 28,537 |
xW — expected wins by points for ranking per round
W-xW — positive = lucky | negative = unlucky
Projected Final Ladder
| # | Team | Current W-L-D | Current Pts | Remaining | Exp. Future W | Proj. W-L-D | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skillzdatkillz | 16-5-0 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 16-5-0 | 64 |
| 2 | Kochie's Boys | 14-7-0 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 14-7-0 | 56 |
| 3 | Beckston FC | 13-8-0 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 13-8-0 | 52 |
| 4 | Judd Bangers | 11-10-0 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 5 | Ro Ro Ro Your Boat | 11-10-0 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 11-10-0 | 44 |
| 6 | Lads FC | 9-12-0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 7 | Biagi Boomers | 9-12-0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 9-12-0 | 36 |
| 8 | West Coasts Finest | 8-13-0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 8-13-0 | 32 |
| 9 | RONSTON FC | 7-14-0 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 7-14-0 | 28 |
| 10 | Aztrilicueta FC | 7-14-0 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 7-14-0 | 28 |
No upcoming matches to project. All regular season matches have been played.
How it works
- Pythagorean expectation estimates true team strength from points scored and conceded (exponent = 2.37)
- Log5 method (Bill James) converts two teams' individual win rates into a head-to-head probability
- Early in the season, the model weights Pythagorean expectation more heavily; as games accumulate, observed win rate takes over
- Draw probability is estimated from the season's historical draw rate