2024 Expected Wins
Win probabilities and projected ladder using Log5 + Pythagorean expectation
Based on 17 completed rounds of data
Projected Final Ladder
| # | Team | Current W-L-D | Current Pts | Remaining | Exp. Future W | Proj. W-L-D | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aztrilicueta FC | 12-5-0 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 12-5-0 | 48 |
| 2 | West Coasts Finest | 12-5-0 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 12-5-0 | 48 |
| 3 | Judd Bangers | 12-5-0 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 12-5-0 | 48 |
| 4 | Ro Ro Ro Your Boat | 9-8-0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 9-8-0 | 36 |
| 5 | Lads FC | 8-9-0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 8-9-0 | 32 |
| 6 | Kochie's Boys | 8-9-0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 8-9-0 | 32 |
| 7 | Biagi Boomers | 8-9-0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 8-9-0 | 32 |
| 8 | Skillzdatkillz | 7-10-0 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 7-10-0 | 28 |
| 9 | Beckston FC | 5-12-0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 5-12-0 | 20 |
| 10 | RONSTON FC | 4-13-0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 4-13-0 | 16 |
No upcoming matches to project. All regular season matches have been played.
How it works
- Pythagorean expectation estimates true team strength from points scored and conceded (exponent = 2.37)
- Log5 method (Bill James) converts two teams' individual win rates into a head-to-head probability
- Early in the season, the model weights Pythagorean expectation more heavily; as games accumulate, observed win rate takes over
- Draw probability is estimated from the season's historical draw rate